Doesn't Repeat, But Rhymes

There's an eerie similarity between Jewish history in the 1st and 2nd century and Palestinian history in the 20th and 21st century, despite the two histories being almost perfect opposites. The Jewish rebellions were native resistance to a foreign empire while the Arab wars were an empire (albeit a fractured one) trying to reclaim lost territory in a revanchist fantasy.

Nevertheless, the narratives are almost the same.

Both start with a catastrophic war that resulted in massive displacement; the Great Jewish Revolt of '66 and the Arab–Israeli War '48. The failed Jewish rebellion led to the destruction of the Second Temple and the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Jews from Judea. The Arab invasion led to the Nakba, a massive flight of Arabs from Palestine and the destruction of their towns and villages.

Both were painful blows, but not mortal.

These failed wars were followed by a period of international terrorism. For the Jews it was the Kitos War of 115, which included Jewish rebellions and massacres in Greece, North Africa, and Mesopotamia. For the Arabs it was decades spent carrying out plane hijackings, hostage takings, and bombings in Europe, South America, and the Middle East.

The Romans responded poorly, by expelling the most radical Jewish communities back to Judea, turning a relatively pacified region into a deadly trap, made deadlier by Iranian intervention (or rather, the Parthian Empire). Israel did the same with Gaza, leaving a mortal enemy to his own devices and allowing Iranian intervention (or rather, the Islamic Republic).

Finally, the conflicts exploded into the bloodiest and most destructive wars in the history of each group. Both started with surprise attacks that left the stronger opponent reeling but also led to utter destruction; in the case of the Jews it was the Bar Kokhba revolt of 132 and in the case of the Arabs in Gaza it was the October 7 war. It is likely that the West Bank would soon follow the same suicidal route.

A tunnel used by Jewish rebels during the Bar Kokhba revolt

Even the methods were similar; Bar Kokhba's men spent years digging countless tunnels all over Judea right under the Romans’ noses, which made this war challenging for the Romans but also resulted in the utter devastation of Judea.

We don’t know how the October 7 war will end (or even how future historians will call it) but we can already say it’s by far the bloodiest and most destructive war in the brief history of the Palestinian Arabs.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

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