Thoughts About a War-in-Progress

It’s been a week since the Israeli-American alliance began its war against the Mordor of the Middle East. It’s too early to make conclusions, but I have some preliminary thoughts I’d like to share with the holy congregation.

The Rules Have Changed

For 40 years, Iran's strategy was the geopolitical equivalent of a schoolyard bully going "I'm not touching you!" and feeling secure the good kids won't fight back because they didn’t want to get in trouble with the principal.

Then a new principal came along and beat the shit out of the twerp himself.

We’re living in a brave new world where bullies can no longer hide behind legal papers. If you piss of an empire, you suffer.

This was made possible by Israel’s rampage in the Middle East following October 7. Since Israel did what was deemed impossible, the definition of what was possible changed. Reality was redefined.

The government of Iran understood the old world well and prepared for this war according to this understanding. However, the reality Iran prepared for was replaced, pulling the magic carpet from under its feet.

In the old world, what the US and Israel have done would have been impossible. They would have been entangled by international laws, UN pageantry, hostile NGOs, media and academic sabotage, and the hesitancy of their allies.

However, Trump bulldozed through all of it. Europe acquiesced.

• Britain reversed its decision to ban the US from using Diego Garcia to attack Iran.

• Spain folded following a threat of embargo and allowed the US to attack Iran from its territory.

• France sent a carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean after saying it won’t.

No one wants to stand in the way of a bulldozer.

The Headless Chicken Strategy

The enemy made two strategic mistakes:

Iran attacked the Gulf States, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and Turkey

By shooting in all directions, Iran aligned the Arabs and Europeans with Israeli interests. I wonder if this was a miscalculation or the result of hysteria. Iran was always so careful. This recklessness is surprising, almost like the behavior of a headless chicken.

Hezbollah attacked Israel

Hezbollah’s entry into the war gave Israel the legitimacy to operate deep inside Lebanon and create a buffer zone by ceasing and depopulating enemy land. Furthermore, since the eyes of the world are currently on Iran, Israel can engage in more extreme actions without anyone noticing.

Instead of Hezbollah aiding Iran to fight Israel, this resulted in Iran aiding Israel to fight Hezbollah.

Both mistakes have rearranged the political landscape in Israel’s favor. This is a great boon after the damage to Israel’s international standing following the Gaza war.

What can I say? The work of the righteous is done by others.

Hezbollah and Iran fell victim to their own propaganda.

For decades, they cried Israel was as fragile as a cobweb, that the Israeli public was soft and spoiled, incapable of withstanding a long war. This was the basis of their strategy: harass the Israeli public enough and they’ll demand their government stopped the war, and eventually go back to Poland, because they’re not really citizens of a sovereign state but tourists in the Middle East.

However, when push came to shove, it was millions of Muslims who fled from from the airstrikes, while the Israeli public proved steadfast in the face of a long war. No matter what the enemy threw at the Israeli people, they turned the enemy’s worst attacks into jokes and danced in their shelters.

Nasrallah and Khamenei have staked their lives on a lie and paid the ultimate price.

“You Can’t Do That”

My entire life Israelis were paralyzed by the phrase “you can’t do that.” Anything that would significantly alter the status quo was immediately discarded with this phrase.

No matter how many historical precedents you produced, what compelling arguments you made, you always got the same dogged reply.

“You can’t do that.”

To quote the best science fiction show ever produced, “This has always been a problem for our kind. Even our dreams are small.”

In reality, the only thing that can’t be done is what contradicts the laws of physics. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a slave. Anything else can be done. Maybe it’s not the best idea, but it can be done.

For a long time, the Israeli people were prisoners of that terrible phrase. We have build a prison for our imagination and its material was “you can’t do that.”

However, October 7 has awakened something within us. People tore down this awful phrase and let their imagination fly free. Every day, things everyone said couldn’t be done were done and the sky didn’t fall.

• Israel leveled an entire region and took half their land as a punishment for their atrocities against the Jewish people.

• A single tweet can send all of South Lebanon packing. Another tweet empties the Dahieh of Beirut.

• An Israeli pilot killed the the Supreme Leader of Iran as if he was nothing more than another Hamas terrorist.

Tell any of this to an Israeli from 2022 and he’s shake his head with a smile usually reserved for children talking about dragons and say, “you can’t do that.”

This is what happens when our dreams are no longer imprisoned.

We can do everything.

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