A Desperate Plea to the Israeli People to Stop Being Idiots, Part 2

In my previous article, I explained why the noisy demand to get back all hostages at “any price” is unrealistic and actually hurts the hostages. Today I want to address the sheer idiocy of the people saying, “let’s stop the war, we can renew it any time we want.”

Here’s why anyone saying this is delusional:

1. The Enemy Does Not Sleep

While strictly speaking, you can attack anyone at any time—it doesn’t contradict the laws of physics—history shows this is simply not something Israel does, with the sole exception of 1967, which happened under a totally different kind of government.

Gaza spent two decades building a deadly war machine, digging one of the largest military tunnel systems on the planet, smuggling tens of thousands of rockets and guns and promising to destroy Israel. Israel only responded when Gaza attacked first and only in a limited way.

None of these operations were meant to destroy the enemy. They were basically slaps on the wrist. The objective was to manage the conflict, not to win it.

It took the murder and kidnapping of almost 1,400 people for Israel to take Gaza seriously and even then Israel chose limited action rather than total war.

So, in light of this, do you believe that if things calm down, Israel will start a serious war because Gaza smuggled in a few rockets, dug another tunnel, opened another training camp?

Don’t fool yourself.

Nothing will happen until Gaza lunches the next October 7.

2. Taking Hostages Becomes the Doomsday Weapon

The excellent commentator Amit Sagel wrote last year that Israel set a dangerous precedent for the entire world. For the first time in recent history, a state has agreed to exchange hostages not just for prisoners, but for political and military concessions.

If this works, from now on, the enemy will kidnap Israelis and instead of “just” demanding prisoner release, they’ll demand withdrawal from territories held by Israel, acceptance of Iran’s nuclear program, dismantling Jewish towns…

His analysis is 100% correct except this isn’t the first time in history a state is paying a strategic battlefield price for its citizens' return.

In 1995, Chechen separatists attacked the Russian city of Budyonnovsk, killed and injured hundreds of people, and took almost 2,000 civilians hostage. The Chechens demanded a ceasefire and a safe passage for the militants. Russia acquiesced and withdrew from Chechnya, granting it de-facto independence.

Four years later, Chechnya invaded Russia, destroying several villages and displacing tens of thousands of people. This led to a second Russian invasion of Chechnya, resulting in countless deaths for both nations and widespread destruction.

So, it happened before and it ended very poorly. Why learn from your own mistakes when you can learn from somebody else’s mistakes?

3. A War Not Fought For Winning Is Not Worth Fighting

Germany and Japan held millions of Allied prisoners for 45 months. The death rate among American POWs in Japanese camps was almost 40%! This was hell on earth.

This didn't make America abandon the good fight. American bombings killed American prisoners. The atom bomb killed American prisoners. This was painful, but America pushed on. The American people understood that this was the price they were paying to secure the future of their nation. They realized the price of leaving evil smoldering was another world conflagration that will ultimately cost a lot more lives, including the lives of their families and loved ones.

However, there’s a deeper issue here.

Each time you ask a man to risk his life for a futile war, he becomes less willing to do it again. He becomes jaded and cynical. Why risk your life and lose friends fighting for an enemy stronghold only to see it given back to the enemy a month later for a piece of paper? Why risk your life fighting door to door, when you know your government could just blow up the whole vipers’ nest from the air but chooses to sacrifice you for PR.

Such actions kill the soul of the nation. Goodwill is limited resource. Don’t waste it.

4. Unique Circumstances

Trump is unique circumstances. October 7 is unique circumstances.

When was the last time Israel had such a unique internal and external justification to act? When was the last time an American president was as supportive as Trump? Just a few month ago, who could have imagined the White House would be more Kahanist than any political party in Israel? When was the last time America urged anyone to kick out the hostile population from a region they conquered?

This is a totally unique opportunity that may never return again. Squandering it will be an unforgivable crime.

5. Bloody Inflation

Let’s look at the causality rates from each war in Gaza since the Israeli government ethnically cleansed Gaza of Jews and left the enemy to his own devices.

'06: 1

'08: 13

'14: 73

'23: 2000

Do you see the trend?

The enemy learns from his mistakes, adapts, and builds a more powerful war machine after each war. We can't afford to let them keep doing it. They must be destroyed utterly and they must be destroyed now!

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