Hamas Blinked First
War is a contest of wills.
Two groups of people with contradictory aims hurt each other until one of the groups either gives up on its goals or is destroyed. Whether its cavemen throwing rocks at each other over who gets the nicer cave, or coalitions of nuclear powers vying for dominance, the principle is the same.
The Palestinians have always understood this. This is why they elevate the concept of “sumud” so much, why many Hamas favors the Afghan proverb, “You have the watches, but we have the time.”
Last year, for the same reason, I put an accent on the concept of steadfastness in the article I wrote for the Spectator in honor of the first anniversary.
The present situation in Israel has become a waiting game and Israelis are adjusting. In the past, we were a culture that wanted everything here and now while the enemy had the patience to play the long game. Now, for the first time in my life, I see Jews display grim steadfastness while Arabs cry, “We’ve run out of patience. We’re tired.”
In the end, our ability to hold fast may prove to be the most important weapon of all.
For the first time in living memory, it’s the enemy who ran out of steadfastness.
And make no mistakes. Just like the deal with Lebanon and Hezbollah, the plan Hamas agreed to is a surrender agreement with a pretty ribbon on top.
After October 7, Hamas had three key demands for ending the war and releasing the hostages kidnapped on October 7:
Full Withdrawal of Israeli Forces from Gaza
No Disarmament of Hamas
Permanent end to the war
Not surprisingly, Israel’s demands were almost the exact opposite:
Israel retains a security buffer zone in Gaza
Disarmament of Hamas
Ability to continue the war if Israel’s demands are not met
Now, I don’t know what’s going to happen next week, but the terms to which Hamas agreed correspond 100% to the Israeli demands and 0% to the demands of Hamas.
I will confess, I didn’t think that this was going to happen, in part due to the constant sabotage of the Bring Them Home Now movement.
I even wrote Hamas will never release all the hostages because at this point this is the only leverage they have, except holding their own people hostage. I also said they’ll never consent to loss of land because this is the only thing Arabs have historically considered as a defeat (Nakba and Nakhsa).
Hamas has already agreed to both without accepting a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire. If we approach this war like a board game, that’s 3-0 to Israel. A remember, victory and defeat are not binary. They’re a spectrum. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking, “I didn’t get 100% of what I wanted, therefore I lost.”
This puts Hamas in an interesting trap. If (God willing!) the hostages are released on Monday, Hamas will find itself with no leverage and no guarantees that Israel won’t renew the fighting. Basically, they’ll have to follow through with the other conditions of the 20-point plan or Israel will start bombing them again.
This reminds me of the situation in Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it won’t stop bombing Israel until there was a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and Israel withdrew from all Lebanese land. However, after they got a good thrashing, they gave up on the “support front” idea (which in itself is a military defeat) and accepted a deal in which Israel remained on part of their land and enforced the terms itself.
Since then, Israel killed hundreds of Hezbollah operatives, destroyed countless weapon stockpiles and tunnels, and Hezbollah hasn’t done a thing. Because the ceasefire wasn’t really a ceasefire. It was a surrender deal with a pretty ribbon on top.
As the Romans used to say, “Woe to the vanquished.”
As I was writing this article, Israel destroyed HUNDREDS of Hezbollah engineering vehicles in south Lebanon because they were attempting to rebuild the tunnels. As I’m reviewing it now, they killed a Hezbollah commander who was south of the Litani in breach of the treaty.
Hamas is in a similar trap: after they release the hostages, they can either comply with the other points of deal (which basically restores the Mandate of Palestine complete with a British governor) or get bombed again, now without the protection of the hostages.
Sounds like a great deal to me!
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The meme you chose for this post is à propos. I keep thinking about how Rome turned around and steadfastly conquered Carthage with great military leaders like Scipio the African. This two year campaign by Israeli forces is a phenomenal achievement.
An historical quibble. It wasn’t the Romans who said, “woe to the vanquished”. It was said to them by the Gaulish leader Brennus.
The tale is told by the Roman historian Livy. After Brennus’ army conquered and pillaged Rome, the Romans agreed to pay a quantity of gold to get them to leave. When they questioned the accuracy of the scales used to weigh the gold, Brennus responded by throwing his heavy sword on the pan holding the weights and exclaimed “Vae victis.”
As to Hamas, it is completely isolated. The U.S. got Qatar to surrender Hamas - who had brought the war to its own territory thanks to an IAF strike, even if it was unsuccessful - in exchange for a Trump executive order and Turkey to abandon them in exchange for future arms sales.
The Arab League supports the deal, so any Hamas failure to live up to all the points will result in its cutting Hamas loose as well.
The problem Hamas will face if it does disarm will be the revenge taken by all the clans it brutalized over the past 18 years. So if I’m Hamas, any weapons surrender has to be done on my way out of Gaza.