The meme you chose for this post is à propos. I keep thinking about how Rome turned around and steadfastly conquered Carthage with great military leaders like Scipio the African. This two year campaign by Israeli forces is a phenomenal achievement.
An historical quibble. It wasn’t the Romans who said, “woe to the vanquished”. It was said to them by the Gaulish leader Brennus.
The tale is told by the Roman historian Livy. After Brennus’ army conquered and pillaged Rome, the Romans agreed to pay a quantity of gold to get them to leave. When they questioned the accuracy of the scales used to weigh the gold, Brennus responded by throwing his heavy sword on the pan holding the weights and exclaimed “Vae victis.”
As to Hamas, it is completely isolated. The U.S. got Qatar to surrender Hamas - who had brought the war to its own territory thanks to an IAF strike, even if it was unsuccessful - in exchange for a Trump executive order and Turkey to abandon them in exchange for future arms sales.
The Arab League supports the deal, so any Hamas failure to live up to all the points will result in its cutting Hamas loose as well.
The problem Hamas will face if it does disarm will be the revenge taken by all the clans it brutalized over the past 18 years. So if I’m Hamas, any weapons surrender has to be done on my way out of Gaza.
I wish you would have held off writing this until Monday (after the hostages are released). I’m afraid between now and then Hamas will renege on the deal. Of course if they do, Trump has given the green light to destroy Gaza City, but still… we need the hostages home.
I am writing on Oct 16. All twenty living hostages are back! But from the 28 dead hostages, hardly a quarter is returned or will be returned soon. Besides, Hamas refuses to disarm and is on a killing spree in Gaza murdering dozens or maybe hundreds of “collaborators “.
The peace agreement is nearly dead. Israel is preparing for renewed military action.
It looks like we are back to square one with the difference that the Israeli army can now operate everywhere without fear of hitting living Israeli hostages. Unless a miracle happens, the war will restart soon it seems.
Israel wants the hostages back.
Hamas wants to stay in power.
Israel wants to destroy Hamas as a military movement.
Hamas wants to occupy Israel and destroy all the Jews.
If Hamas would be smart they continue to comply with all peace agreement points and continue underground with rebuilding its military organisation. That will take them 5-10 years but they have the time. We just have to watch it.
Thank you so much for your wonderful/illuminating essay !!!!!.....Looking forward to the release of the hostages !!!!!!!..... Shabbat Shalom and Chag Sukkot Sameach........
I 100% agree. My only fear is that Hamas is playing an even longer game, waiting for the next pro Palestinian American president to try this again with more fire…
Your fear is almost for sure correct. If it is not Hamas it will be likeminded people that will try again.
The difference is that they will have to wait two generations before Israel will let its guards down, like between Oct 6, 1973 the Yom Kipur war, and Oct 7, 2023. Thousands of security assessments have been performed in Israel and we can be sure that Oct 7, 2023 cannot be repeated for many years.
The meme you chose for this post is à propos. I keep thinking about how Rome turned around and steadfastly conquered Carthage with great military leaders like Scipio the African. This two year campaign by Israeli forces is a phenomenal achievement.
Miraculous and Herculean are the IDF! 🫡
Miraculous and Herculean are the IDF! 🫡
An historical quibble. It wasn’t the Romans who said, “woe to the vanquished”. It was said to them by the Gaulish leader Brennus.
The tale is told by the Roman historian Livy. After Brennus’ army conquered and pillaged Rome, the Romans agreed to pay a quantity of gold to get them to leave. When they questioned the accuracy of the scales used to weigh the gold, Brennus responded by throwing his heavy sword on the pan holding the weights and exclaimed “Vae victis.”
As to Hamas, it is completely isolated. The U.S. got Qatar to surrender Hamas - who had brought the war to its own territory thanks to an IAF strike, even if it was unsuccessful - in exchange for a Trump executive order and Turkey to abandon them in exchange for future arms sales.
The Arab League supports the deal, so any Hamas failure to live up to all the points will result in its cutting Hamas loose as well.
The problem Hamas will face if it does disarm will be the revenge taken by all the clans it brutalized over the past 18 years. So if I’m Hamas, any weapons surrender has to be done on my way out of Gaza.
I wish you would have held off writing this until Monday (after the hostages are released). I’m afraid between now and then Hamas will renege on the deal. Of course if they do, Trump has given the green light to destroy Gaza City, but still… we need the hostages home.
You have a point, but I think it's just as important to keep the national spirit up.
I am writing on Oct 16. All twenty living hostages are back! But from the 28 dead hostages, hardly a quarter is returned or will be returned soon. Besides, Hamas refuses to disarm and is on a killing spree in Gaza murdering dozens or maybe hundreds of “collaborators “.
The peace agreement is nearly dead. Israel is preparing for renewed military action.
It looks like we are back to square one with the difference that the Israeli army can now operate everywhere without fear of hitting living Israeli hostages. Unless a miracle happens, the war will restart soon it seems.
Israel wants the hostages back.
Hamas wants to stay in power.
Israel wants to destroy Hamas as a military movement.
Hamas wants to occupy Israel and destroy all the Jews.
If Hamas would be smart they continue to comply with all peace agreement points and continue underground with rebuilding its military organisation. That will take them 5-10 years but they have the time. We just have to watch it.
Your analysis is very reassuring.
Thank you so much for your wonderful/illuminating essay !!!!!.....Looking forward to the release of the hostages !!!!!!!..... Shabbat Shalom and Chag Sukkot Sameach........
I 100% agree. My only fear is that Hamas is playing an even longer game, waiting for the next pro Palestinian American president to try this again with more fire…
Your fear is almost for sure correct. If it is not Hamas it will be likeminded people that will try again.
The difference is that they will have to wait two generations before Israel will let its guards down, like between Oct 6, 1973 the Yom Kipur war, and Oct 7, 2023. Thousands of security assessments have been performed in Israel and we can be sure that Oct 7, 2023 cannot be repeated for many years.
Hope you’re right!!
Hamas should fight to its very bitter end.
The last mopping up would have to be done by Mossad and the clans, one-on-one. Airstrikes are too blunt a tool, even by IAF.
You're going to write great books.
Already wrote a few. God willing, the first one will be published in a few months.
I’m with you 100#
Very well written and spot on
Brilliant!!
This is still all temporary. The Gazans will need to go to Yemen for this to be truly over.
Yes, it’s important to remember that this is not a peace treaty. It’s only a hudna.
Yemen? How about French Guiana
Ha ha ha!!
Or Jordan where they were in the 1940’s and earlier!
The buffer must be bigger.
I liked Haviv Rettig Gur's comment on this, ep 50 of Ask Haviv Everything. At least, Ask Haviv Anything, but I ask him Everything.
🤩😎👏🏻👍🏻🙌🏻🤞🏻
It's an optimistic view, but the fact that Hamas didn't agree to disarm and didn't agree to go into exile means that nothing has really changed.
Both are part of deal, the 2nd phase. If they fail to do it, war will resume.