Rising Lion, Hidden Eagle: A Review Of My First Iranian War
As always, the talking (or rather screeching) heads were wrong. “Wrong” is a kind way to put it. I’m sure many were engaged in psychological warfare for the enemy. But unraveling this mess is the FBI’s job.
My job is to review Rising Lion.
Before the war with Hezbollah last year, the alarmists promised us a second Vietnam, tens of thousands of causalities, no water, no electricity, no hospitals, and Nazis riding on dinosaurs in the streets.
Seriously, remember the headlines promising 15,000 causalities if Israel invaded Lebanon? The screeching head would rather you forgot, but I’m not going to make it easy for them.
In the end, it was smooth sailing, exploding pagers, and Hezbollah being decapitated, humiliated, violated, and taken out of the game. The main purpose of the group was to bomb Israel if Israel ever attacked Iran. However, when the time came, they abandoned Iran just like they abandoned Gaza. Their response was limited to a strongly worded statement.
Iran was easier.
During Operation Rising Lion, 28 Israeli civilians were murdered by Iranian missiles, as opposed to 46 murdered by Hezbollah. 2,874 buildings and 55,000 acres of nature have been damaged by missiles from Lebanon. The towns of Metula and Manara have been mostly devastated. Meanwhile, Iranian attacks have damaged hundreds of buildings and destroyed about a dozen. No damage was inflicted to military targets or vital infrastructure.
In a country that’s like a big family, each loss is felt. Nevertheless, everyone was amazed by how little damage a country 80 times larger than Israel that prepared for this war for 40 years was able to inflict.
On the American side, cowards and traitors like Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Ian forgot-his-name-and-can’t-be-bothered-to-Google-it, and Dave Smith predicted thousands of American causalities and a new “forever war.” In reality, not a single American was harmed and the war ended within hours of the American involvement.
Sorry? Did I say war. I meant “special military operation.” That’s the term your boss prefers, no?
The Iranian abilities degraded at an amazing pace, as you can see from the below graph.
With the exception of a single trainee who was killed at home while visiting his family, every single casualty was a civilian. The diversity of the casualties (19 Jews, 4 Arabs, 5 foreigners) show they were totally random.
Murdering fucking bastards.
Meanwhile, what did Israel achieve?
Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile production were crippled. If that was the sole achievement of the operation, you could have called it an absolute success. However, this is only the start!
30 Iranians generals were killed. Basically the entire senior leadership of their military and numerous high-ranking police officers. In some cases, a guy was killed and his replacement was killed within days. Even when they knew the IAF was hunting them, they couldn’t hide.
At least 14 so-called “scientists” (in reality administrators in Iran’s nuclear program) were killed.
More than half of Iran’ ballistic missile launchers were destroyed (about 200).
A thousand ballistic missiles were destroyed on the ground.
Iranian air force and air defenses were obliterated. Israel totally occupied Iran’s skies for almost two weeks.
Dozens of IRGC and Basij bases were destroyed and hundreds of members of both organizations were killed. The Iranians didn’t finish counting their dead yet, but the number is already higher than 1,000. Hopefully it will reach 1,200. You know why.
There’s more, but I’m literally getting tired of winning, so let’s move on.
Except for the military achievements, there have also been some major political and psychological achievements.
Israel is Now Big Sky Daddy
Before the war, Israel's power ended at its borders. Now it can radiate power thousands of kilometers away and act in Tehran as easily as in Gaza. One of the most amazing things I’ve seen during the war were Iranian squads bombed while preparing to launch missiles at Israel, just like in Gaza and Lebanon. Amazing!
Great nations like Germany and Britain talk to Israel as equals. Germany even said Israel did everyone’s dirty work. Israel is a small country but the shadow of Israel is vast.
Israel not Alone. Iran Is.
The US actively and directly joined the war on Israel's side. Both the Israeli media and the enemy media (like there’s a difference!) keep pushing the narrative that Israel is alone in the world. This is a mortal blow to this false narrative.
At the same time, the Iranian doctrine of keeping the war away from its borders using proxy forces has collapsed. War came to Iran with a vengeance and even Iran’s crooked media couldn’t hide it from the people.
The Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East, which Iran had been building up for decades precisely for this moment, did not join the campaign: Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias didn’t fire a single missile. Even the Houthis—who used to launch missiles at Israel almost every night—only launched two ballistic missiles during the entire war, both at the very start.
Iran learned that when push came to shove, Iran is alone.
So, what didn’t I like?
Many Israelis seem to have forgotten what this war is about. We are not fighting to free the people of Iran. We are fighting to protect the people of Israel. Everything else is secondary.
Because of this, Israel acted under the misguided idea that the Iranian people are not the enemy and took great care to avoid harming or even inconveniencing the population of Iran.
This is a mistake.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Israel should target Iranian civilians. However, the people of Iran should have all felt the war in a way their media couldn’t spin. No water, no electricity, collapsed roads. The war should have affected as many people as possible in order to leave them without apatite for more. (Why, yes! I am a fan of General Sherman.)
My second issue is the conduct of the government. Like always, when the going gets tough, the tough disappear from the public eye, creating a fertile space for rumors and anxiety.
The citizens of Israel having to learn about the truce with Iran from rumors spread by foreign media, Trump’s rambling posts, and the filthy defeatism of Israeli media is an absolute disgrace. This left a sour taste in what should have otherwise been a triumphant feast.
Sadly, this is very typical of this government which doesn’t respect the people enough to personally deliver news that may be unpopular. The same happened with the ceasefire in Lebanon and after October 7. When people need to hear them the most, they disappear.
So what’s next?
Israel and Iran don't have a ceasefire. A ceasefire has an enforcement mechanism while Israel and Iran just stopped shooting at each other for tactical reasons. At best, this is a truce, at worse, a pause to reload.
Unless there is a treaty, Israel can and should launch a new surprise attack on Iran at its earliest convenience. When your enemy is down, that’s when you kick him the hardest, until he taps the mat.
Remember this: until we have a formal ceasefire, we’re at war.
All in all, an amazing operation. Well done!
This American stands with you
Thanks--this is a gem. Fabulous summation and thank you immensely for calling the media out: "the filthy defeatism of Israeli media is an absolute disgrace. " It is. I think the people who think of themselves as "journalists" (they're not- professional journalism is dead) think being oppositional defiant is a calling.